Why The 300%+ Upside Thesis Is Stronger Than Ever

Remitly: Beating & Raising (Again), but this time Wall Street Noticed

If you’ve been following along, you know I’ve been pounding the table on Remitly ($RELY) since my first deep dive last September and the full “4x Earnings Power” write-up in November.

Back then the stock sat at ~$12.35, the market was still pricing it like a cash-burning marketing machine, and I laid out why stripping out growth spend revealed a business printing normalized earnings at mid-single-digit multiples in a $2T+ market that’s being forced digital.

Last night (Feb 18, 2026) they delivered blowout Q4 and full-year results — and raised 2026 guidance again. The stock is up 29% today. This marks every single quarter in 2025 they’ve beaten and raised.

The market is finally catching on: this isn’t a high-multiple SaaS name — it’s a high-ROIC, capital-light compounder that flipped the cash-flow switch while trading like a value stock.

Here’s exactly what was released (all straight from the release and presentation):

The Numbers That Matter

• Q4 Revenue: $442.2M (+26% YoY, beat $427.3M est. by 3.5%)

• Q4 Adj. EBITDA: $88.6M (+98% YoY, 20.0% margin — record), beat $51.5M est. by a mile

• Q4 GAAP EPS: $0.19 (beat ~$0.02 est.)

• Q4 Adjusted EPS: $0.39 (beat $0.16 est.)

• FY 2025 Revenue: $1.635B (+29% YoY)

• FY 2025 Adj. EBITDA: $272.2M (17% margin)

• FY 2025 GAAP Net Income: $67.9M — first full year profitable

• FY 2025 Free Cash Flow: $283.3M (17.3% FCF margin)

• 2026 Guidance (raised): Revenue $1.94–1.96B (19–20% growth), Adj. EBITDA $340–360M

• Q1 2026 Guidance: Revenue $436–438M (21% YoY), Adj. EBITDA $82–84M (positive GAAP net income)

The cash machine is now fully online — and accelerating:

What’s Driving the Acceleration (The Stuff the Street Is Still Under-Appreciating)

• Remitly Business (the massive $22T TAM expansion opportunity) + high-/very-high-amount senders now make up ~50% of total send volume and are the biggest drivers of growth acceleration. Average business ticket size is 2× consumer; this segment alone expands the addressable market 10×.

• Remitly Flex (Send Now, Pay Later) revenue nearly doubled sequentially in Q4 with higher margins.

• Remitly One membership and stablecoin/wallet features are scaling fast.

• New product revenue overall expected to more than double in 2026 — on track for 5–10% of total revenue by 2028 (higher-margin mix).

  

• High-amount senders exploding: Very-high-amount (>$10k) +105% QoQ / +99% FY; high-amount ($1–10k) +40–41% FY. They’re moving upmarket while the core engine hums.

Capital Return & Leadership Alignment Setup for Shareholder Returns

• $23.9M in buybacks executed in 2025; management has stepped up commitment and expects to increase quarterly pacing in 2026 — now a top capital-allocation priority after organic growth.

• Founder Matt Oppenheimer moves to Chairman (still heavily aligned via ownership).

• New CEO Sebastian Gunningham (ex-Amazon S-Team, Santander/Openbank) starts this week.

  • His package: $350k base salary + $4M cash signing bonus + massive equity (1.4625M PSUs tied to $20–$50 stock-price hurdles over 5 years + 787.5k RSUs). This is 95%+ equity-weighted — he is literally paid to drive the stock materially higher.

  • Add to this the ~$500M in cash on the balance sheet and a meaningful buyback looks likely.

Valuation Still Absurdly Cheap

Even after today’s 29% move, you’re still buying a ~20% grower with expanding margins, a 10%+ TTM FCF yield (pre-pop; climbing fast in 2026 on the $350M EBITDA guide), and ~5–6x 2028 EBITDA ($575–600M guide at 20–22% margins).

The original “4x earnings-power” math (stripping growth spend) looks even better now.

You are buying a secular leading growth business in a market where the 1% cash-remittance tax (effective Jan 1, 2026) is already accelerating the shift away from legacy players.

Remitly’s digital moat (5,300+ corridors, mobile wallets, express delivery, AI fraud tools) just keeps widening.

Bottom Line

Nothing has changed about the core thesis I laid out in November — except execution is accelerating, cash flow arrived earlier than modeled, the upmarket/business shift is real, and the new CEO is wired for shareholder compounding at scale.

I remain a large shareholder and have been adding as opportunities present.

If you haven’t read the full original thesis yet, here it is:

300% Upside on Remittance Juggernaut

Drop any questions below — happy to dive into the numbers, the new CEO’s background, the business TAM math, or anything else.

Want More Asymmetric Pitches Like This?

This is exactly the kind of high-conviction, 3x–10x+ asymmetric bet I share with paid subscribers. Behind the paywall you get:

• My full “Core List” with real-time position sizing

• Monthly deep-dive theses on the next asymmetric bet

• Early access to new ideas via chat as I dive into them

• Portfolio updates, earnings deep-dives, and private Chat Q&A

• The exact playbook I used to triple my portfolio over the last few years

If you’re finding real edge in these kinds of setups and want more of the same (plus support the independent research that goes into every post), consider upgrading.

It’s the best way to keep these asymmetric opportunities coming — and you can cancel anytime.

P.S. I’ve got another idea I’ll be laying out w/ alternative data that analysts continue to ignore w/ 2-3X upside, with a fantastic management team to back it up.

P.P.S. I’ll be speaking at the Litigation Investing Conference hosted by Swen Lorenz next week. Check it out if you’re into Asymmetric Ideas.